Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erasmo RamirezPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matt ManningPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Franco homered to right (380 feet), Bethancourt scored.10–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–6
- 7Carpenter homered to center (423 feet), Torkelson scored.8–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 6Baddoo scored on Stephenson wild pitch, Rogers to third on wild pitch by Stephenson.8–4
- 6Baddoo scored on Stephenson wild pitch, Rogers to third on wild pitch by Stephenson.8–4
- 6H. Ramírez reached on infield single to first, Franco scored.8–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 6Díaz scored on a balk, Franco to third on a balk.7–3
- 6Díaz scored on a balk, Franco to third on a balk.7–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 16–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 4Rogers sacrificed into double play, left to second, Carpenter scored, Ibañez thrown out at second.6–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 4Ibañez singled to center, Torkelson scored, Carpenter to third.6–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4B. Lowe homered to center (429 feet).6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 2Haase singled to right, Carpenter scored, Ibañez thrown out at home.5–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 2Díaz homered to left center (410 feet), Bethancourt scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1J. Lowe singled to right, Arozarena scored and B. Lowe scored, Paredes to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Arozarena grounded into fielder's choice to second, Díaz scored on error, B. Lowe safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Ibañez.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Fair odds
- TB -107
- DET +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.4 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −18 | TB: Erasmo Ramirez (no track record yet) · DET: Matt Manning: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +58 Elo | TB 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3030–27 | Road vs home | 23–3127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 4–1 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.