St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Andrew KniznerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Rays- Wander FrancoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Franco scored on wild pitch by Romero.5–2
- 9Franco scored on Romero wild pitch.5–2
- 9Franco tripled to center, Díaz scored.5–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 9Edman homered to right (401 feet).5–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 7Nootbaar grounded into fielder's choice to first, Motter scored on throwing error by shortstop Franco, Edman out at second, Nootbaar to second.4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Burleson singled to center, Arenado scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4Knizner homered to left center (403 feet), Arenado scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Fair odds
- TB -131
- STL +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 4.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +4 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +79 Elo | TB 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.91st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3025–32 | Road vs home | 38–202nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–1 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.