Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Oscar GonzalezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Rays- Luke RaleyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erasmo RamirezPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arozarena singled to center, B. Lowe scored.5–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 15–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 9B. Lowe reached on infield single to shortstop, Díaz scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 35–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 9Díaz doubled to center, J. Lowe scored.5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 8Raley doubled to center, Arozarena scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 8Gallagher singled to center, Gonzalez scored, Straw to second.5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 8Calhoun singled to right, Laureano scored, Gonzalez to second.4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 7H. Ramírez singled to center, J. Lowe scored.3–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Straw grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Laureano scored, Arias out at second, Calhoun to third.3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Gonzalez hit sacrifice fly to center, Giménez scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Fair odds
- TB -125
- CLE +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.1 – 4.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +6 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TB: Shawn Armstrong: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +63 Elo | TB 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 24th of 3025–33 | Road vs home | 39–212nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.