Tampa Bay Rays at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Christian BethancourtBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Tristan BeckPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9H. Ramírez scored on Ta. Rogers wild pitch.10–2
- 9H. Ramírez scored on Ta. Rogers wild pitch.10–2
- 9H. Ramírez tripled to right, Arozarena scored.9–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–2
- 8Estrada doubled to right, Conforto scored.8–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–1
- 8Siri doubled to left, H. Ramírez scored, Paredes to third.8–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 8Paredes singled to center, Arozarena scored, H. Ramírez to second.7–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 7Bethancourt homered to left (407 feet).6–1
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 35–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 25–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 5Estrada singled to left, Pederson scored, Conforto to second.5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 5Margot singled to right, Mead scored, Bethancourt to second.5–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 5Bethancourt singled to right, H. Ramírez scored, Mead to third.4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Díaz doubled to center, Basabe scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 48%
- Fair odds
- SF -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.7 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +4 | TB: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Ryan Walker: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +16 Elo | TB 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 8th of 3031–27 | Road vs home | 34–269th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.