Texas Rangers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Giants- Patrick BaileyBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching8.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bailey homered to left (355 feet), Flores scored.2–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 10Duran scored on a balk, J. Smith to second on a balk.2–1
- 10Duran scored on a balk, J. Smith to second on a balk.2–1
- 9Duran reached on infield single to shortstop, Martinez scored.1–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Conforto homered to center (408 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 47%
- Fair odds
- SF -102
- TEX +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.9 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +1 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +21 Elo | TEX 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 10th of 3030–27 | Road vs home | 33–269th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 2–0 SF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.