Tampa Bay Rays at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-4
- Zack LittellPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jakob JunisPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bailey singled to left, Conforto scored.0–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–7
- 8Conforto doubled to left, Pederson scored.0–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 7Bailey, Ramos scored on throwing error by catcher Pinto, Estrada to second on error.0–5
- 7Bailey scored on pickoff error by catcher Pinto and Ramos scored, Estrada picked off second.0–5
- 6Flores homered to left (373 feet), Meckler scored.0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Estrada homered to left (374 feet).0–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 46%
- Fair odds
- SF -102
- TB +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −11 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SF: Jakob Junis: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +29 Elo | TB 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 7th of 3032–27 | Road vs home | 34–2710th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–0 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.