San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting4-4
- Matt WaldronPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chapman singled to right, Soler scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 8Conforto grounded out to first, Fitzgerald scored on error, Soler to second, Soler safe at third on error by shortstop Kim.2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Chapman grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Lee scored, Conforto out at second, Wade Jr. to third.2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike - Pitch Timer Violation 12–0
- 6Kim singled to left, Cronenworth scored, Machado to second.2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Cronenworth doubled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 60%
- ML SD +140 / SF -165
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- SF: Elo 49.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SF -149
- SD +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.6 – 4.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +10 | SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +7 Elo | SD 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.828th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.422nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–112th of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–6 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5–1 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 11–8 SF in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.