San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Conforto homered to right center (420 feet).4–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Cronenworth doubled to right, Bogaerts scored and Merrill scored.3–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 33–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7Bogaerts singled to left, Wade scored, Merrill to third.3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Campusano scored on throwing error by catcher Bailey, Wade stole third.3–3
- 7Campusano scored on throwing error by catcher Bailey, Wade stole third.3–3
- 7Lee sacrificed into double play, center to center to first to shortstop, Conforto scored, Ahmed thrown out at third.3–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 7Ahmed singled to left, Estrada scored, Conforto to third.2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 5Wade grounded out to first, Kim scored, Campusano to second, Profar to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Profar singled to center, Machado scored, Kim to second.1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Ahmed doubled to left, Conforto scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 50%
- ML SF -110 / SD -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- SD: Elo 53.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -100
- SF -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.8 – 3.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −16 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +25 Elo | SD 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.02nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 24th of 3034–45 | Road vs home | 42–3713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 5–8 SD in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.