San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jakob JunisPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Padres- Ha-Seong KimBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kim singled to right, Azocar scored.7–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 8Cooper doubled to shortstop, Soto scored, Tatis Jr. to third.7–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 5Yastrzemski homered to left center (357 feet).7–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 3Schmitt hit sacrifice fly to left, Meckler scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Sabol doubled to center, Davis scored, Meckler to third.5–0
- 3Pitch 9 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Meckler reached on bunt single to pitcher, Yastrzemski scored, Davis to second.4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Pederson scored on error, Davis safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Machado, Yastrzemski safe at third on error.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Yastrzemski singled to center, Estrada scored, Pederson to second.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Pederson singled to left, Wade Jr. scored, Estrada to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 51%
- Fair odds
- SD -105
- SF +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.8 – 3.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −8 | SF: Jakob Junis: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SD: Pedro Avila: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +9 Elo | SD 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 14th of 3031–31 | Road vs home | 33–3319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 3–3 SD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.