San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Juan SotoBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Rich HillPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting4-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Edman homered to right center (387 feet), Winn scored.4–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7Soto singled to center, Gamel scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4Walker homered to left (431 feet), Contreras scored and Arenado scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Soto singled to right, Campusano scored, Kim to third.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Kim singled to left, Carpenter scored, Campusano to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Machado singled to center, Kim scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 48%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.7 – 4.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −8 | SD: Rich Hill: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +14 Elo | SD 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3027–38 | Road vs home | 28–3726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–1 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.