St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Castellanos doubled to left, Harper scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 7Schwarber homered to right center (412 feet).2–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 6Bohm homered to left center (444 feet).2–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3Stott hit sacrifice fly to left, Harper scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 2Schwarber hit a ground rule double, Stubbs scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Stubbs doubled to left, Bohm scored and Marsh scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Goldschmidt homered to right center (376 feet), Edman scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Fair odds
- PHI -127
- STL +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 5.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −1 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +70 Elo | PHI 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 20th of 3028–35 | Road vs home | 36–256th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.