San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Paul DeJongBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Sosa doubled to left, Realmuto scored.8–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 10Estrada sacrificed into double play, center to first, Meckler scored, DeJong doubled off first.8–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 17–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 10DeJong singled to center, Bailey scored and Schmitt scored, Meckler to third.7–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 9Harper homered to right (357 feet), Schwarber scored and Turner scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 35–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 7Slater doubled to left, Estrada scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Turner homered to left center (417 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Schwarber homered to right (386 feet).4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4DeJong homered to left (401 feet), Meckler scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Flores singled to right, Meckler scored, Estrada to second.2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Flores homered to left center (420 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Fair odds
- PHI -118
- SF +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.3 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +5 | SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +53 Elo | PHI 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 3030–31 | Road vs home | 36–245th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 3–2 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.