San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Braves- Eddie RosarioBatting4-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yonny ChirinosPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rosario homered to center (441 feet), Williams scored.5–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 6Camargo grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Conforto scored, Sabol out at second, Davis to third.5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Acuña Jr. homered to right (362 feet).4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4d'Arnaud doubled to right, Rosario scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Estrada singled to left, Conforto scored, Camargo to second.4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Davis hit sacrifice fly to right, Pederson scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 2Arcia grounded out to shortstop, Ozuna scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Rosario doubled to left, Olson scored, Ozuna to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Camargo grounded into fielder's choice to second, Davis scored, Sabol out at second.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Wade Jr. homered to right (394 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Fair odds
- ATL -128
- SF +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.7 – 5.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −18 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Yonny Chirinos: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +65 Elo | ATL 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.81st of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3029–28 | Road vs home | 41–201st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 0–1 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.