New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Albert AbreuPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Braves- Eddie RosarioBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Volpe tripled to center, McKinney scored.3–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–11
- 8Rosario homered to right (382 feet), Ozuna scored.2–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–9
- 6Riley scored on Abreu wild pitch, Ozuna to second on wild pitch by Abreu, Olson to third on wild pitch by Abreu.2–9
- 6Riley scored on Abreu wild pitch, Ozuna to second on wild pitch by Abreu, Olson to third on wild pitch by Abreu.2–9
- 3Lopez singled to right, Arcia scored.2–8
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–7
- 3Arcia singled to center, Rosario scored, Arcia to second.2–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 3Rosario singled to right, d'Arnaud scored and Ozuna scored, Rosario to second.2–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 2Harris II singled to left, Lopez scored, Acuña Jr. to second.2–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Lopez singled to left, Ozuna scored and Rosario scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2Kiner-Falefa singled to right, Cabrera scored, Kiner-Falefa out stretching at second.2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Riley homered to right (369 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Bader grounded out to shortstop, Kiner-Falefa scored, Stanton to second, Judge to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 62%
- Fair odds
- ATL -130
- NYY +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.1 – 5.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +14 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +84 Elo | ATL 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.61st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 3025–30 | Road vs home | 37–203rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.