Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-2
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Albies homered to right (420 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.6–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 8Ozuna doubled to center, Olson scored and Riley scored.4–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 8Riley grounded into fielder's choice to second, Albies scored on fielding error by center fielder Locastro.2–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pillar singled to center, Ozuna scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Fair odds
- ATL -112
- NYM +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.9 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +4 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +60 Elo | ATL 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.819th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 1st of 3037–21 | Road vs home | 28–2619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 7–1 NYM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.