Chicago Cubs at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suzuki homered to center (423 feet).3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6Araúz singled to right, Almonte scored, Vientos to second.2–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6McNeil homered to right center (382 feet).2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Alonso homered to left center (434 feet), Lindor scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Suzuki scored on a passed ball.2–0
- 2Suzuki scored.2–0
- 1Morel homered to left (427 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 47%
- Fair odds
- NYM -102
- CHC +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.5 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −8 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +21 Elo | CHC 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 14th of 3026–26 | Road vs home | 27–2417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 3–2 NYM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.