New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mendick grounded out to shortstop, Ortega scored.3–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–10
- 7McCann singled to right, Cowser scored, Urías to second.2–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–9
- 7Westburg homered to center (424 feet), Henderson scored and Hays scored.2–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 6Rutschman hit sacrifice fly to center, McCann scored.2–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 32–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 6McCann doubled to left, Urías scored and Cowser scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6O'Hearn singled to center, Westburg scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 6Lindor singled to right, Nimmo scored and Ortega scored, Alvarez to third.2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4McCann singled to center, Hays scored and O'Hearn scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 60%
- Fair odds
- BAL -130
- NYM +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +5 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +73 Elo | BAL 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 26th of 3024–35 | Road vs home | 32–215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.