Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Riley AdamsBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reed GarrettPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vientos homered to right center (414 feet).11–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–6
- 9Alvarez homered to center (422 feet).11–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–5
- 9Adams doubled to center, Garrett scored.11–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–4
- 9Meneses scored on error, Garrett safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Baty.10–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–4
- 9Meneses singled to center, Candelario scored.9–4
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball 39–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 29–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 19–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 5Lindor homered to left center (416 feet), Nimmo scored.8–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 28–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 4Pham homered to left center (425 feet).8–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 3Thomas singled to left, Adams scored, Call to third.8–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 3Adams doubled to left, Garrett scored and L. García scored.7–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 2Vientos doubled to left, Canha scored.5–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 35–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 57%
- Fair odds
- NYM -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | −11 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 1.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +52 Elo | NYM 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.121st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3023–28 | Road vs home | 25–2217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 4–5 NYM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.