Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Alonso homered to center (423 feet), Lindor scored.1–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 21–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 11–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 7L. García homered to center (406 feet).1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Alonso homered to center (453 feet), Baty scored and Alvarez scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 56%
- Fair odds
- NYM -117
- WSH +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 4.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +2 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +41 Elo | NYM 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.121st of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3023–27 | Road vs home | 24–2218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 4–4 NYM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.