Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Mets- Mark CanhaBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Canha hit sacrifice fly to right, Alonso scored, Stewart to second, Mendick to third.1–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 8Vogelbach singled to right, McNeil scored, Alonso to second.1–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 6Ruiz hit sacrifice fly to right, Abrams scored, Meneses to second, Candelario to third.1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 54%
- Fair odds
- NYM -115
- WSH +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.5 – 4.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +8 | WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +28 Elo | NYM 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.121st of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 3023–26 | Road vs home | 23–2219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 4–3 NYM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.