New York Mets at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Zack GreinkePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Melendez scored on a balk, Waters to second on a balk, Blanco to third on a balk.6–7
- 10Melendez singled to center, Witt Jr. scored.6–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 10Witt Jr. doubled to center, Garcia scored.6–5
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 36–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 26–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 10Alvarez homered to center (431 feet), McNeil scored.6–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 16–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 8Fermin hit sacrifice fly to center, Melendez scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 8Vientos hit sacrifice fly to left, Lindor scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8Baty walked, Alvarez scored, Alonso to second, Lindor to third.3–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 43–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Alonso singled to right, McNeil scored, Lindor to second, Alvarez to third.2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 56%
- Fair odds
- NYM -107
- KC +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.6 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −2 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +41 Elo | NYM 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 25th of 3024–32 | Road vs home | 18–3629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.