Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-3
- Trevor WilliamsPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Vargas singled to right, Garrett scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Lindor homered to right center (382 feet).1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Narváez hit sacrifice fly to center, Vogelbach scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Alonso hit sacrifice fly to right, McNeil scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 3McNeil tripled to right, Lindor scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Alonso singled to left, Nimmo scored, McNeil to second.1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Abrams stole home, Candelario stole second.1–0
- 1Abrams stole home, Candelario stole second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 56%
- Fair odds
- NYM -117
- WSH +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.4 – 4.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +4 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +39 Elo | NYM 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 19th of 3024–28 | Road vs home | 25–2318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 5–5 NYM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.