New York Mets at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting3-5
- Kodai SengaPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Royals- Drew WatersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Waters homered to right (373 feet).0–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Witt Jr. singled to left, Isbel scored, Garcia to second.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Massey doubled to right, Garcia scored and Melendez scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 57%
- Fair odds
- NYM -107
- KC +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.8 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +5 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +46 Elo | NYM 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 25th of 3024–33 | Road vs home | 19–3629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 0–1 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.