New York Mets at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 0 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lindor homered to left center (395 feet), Stewart scored.2–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–9
- 8Witt Jr. singled to center, Blanco scored, S. Taylor to second.0–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–9
- 8S. Taylor grounded into fielder's choice to third, Fermin scored on error, Blanco safe at second on error by second baseman Araúz.0–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
- 8Blanco singled to right, Massey scored, Fermin to third.0–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 10–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–6
- 7Waters homered to right (381 feet), Fermin scored and Blanco scored.0–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Witt Jr. homered to center (425 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Garcia hit sacrifice fly to center, S. Taylor scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Perez doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Fair odds
- NYM -103
- KC +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.6 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | 0 | NYM: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +15 Elo | NYM 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 26th of 3024–34 | Road vs home | 20–3629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 0–2 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.