Chicago Cubs at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting3-3, 2 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting3-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alonso singled to left, Alvarez scored, Lindor to second.2–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–10
- 7Mendick homered to left (389 feet), Lindor scored and McNeil scored.2–10
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 6Nimmo grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Mendick scored, Araúz out at second, Ortega to third.2–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 6Araúz walked, McNeil scored, Ortega to second, Mendick to third.2–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 42–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 32–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Bellinger singled to left, Hoerner scored, Happ thrown out at third.2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 3Alonso homered to center (423 feet), Lindor scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 3Bellinger singled to right, Madrigal scored, Tauchman to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Alonso homered to left center (380 feet), Alvarez scored and Lindor scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Fair odds
- NYM -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.5 – 4.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +14 | CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +2 Elo | NYM 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 13th of 3025–25 | Road vs home | 26–2317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 2–1 NYM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.