Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Olson homered to center (423 feet), Riley scored.6–8
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play6–8
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball 34–8
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 24–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–8
- 7Happ homered to left center (392 feet).4–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–8
- 6Acuña Jr. singled to right, Rosario scored, Arcia to third.4–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 6Harris II hit sacrifice fly to left, d'Arnaud scored.3–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 5Morel singled to right, Bellinger scored.2–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 4Madrigal singled to right, Candelario scored.2–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 3Albies homered to left center (373 feet).2–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 2Arcia hit sacrifice fly to right, Murphy scored, Ozuna to third.1–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Fair odds
- ATL -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.5 – 5.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −6 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +26 Elo | ATL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3033–17 | Road vs home | 30–2819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–0 CHC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.