Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Joey VottoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Morel doubled to center, Gomes scored.6–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 3Gomes singled to left, Bellinger scored, Swanson to third.6–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 3Happ hit sacrifice fly to center, Hoerner scored.6–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 3Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to center, Madrigal scored, Hoerner to third.6–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 3Encarnacion-Strand grounded into fielder's choice to third, Steer scored, Votto out at second.6–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 3Votto singled to right, Fraley scored, Steer to third.5–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 3Fraley singled to center, Friedl scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 2Swanson homered to center (397 feet).3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Maile doubled to left, Benson scored and Encarnacion-Strand scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Benson doubled to center, Votto scored, Encarnacion-Strand to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 49%
- Fair odds
- CHC -105
- CIN +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.8 – 4.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +23 | 0 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 1.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +6 Elo | CIN 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 3030–23 | Road vs home | 27–2621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 4–1 CHC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.