Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Joey VottoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suzuki homered to center (416 feet).6–16
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–16
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–16
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–15
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–15
- 8Happ homered to left center (403 feet).6–15
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–15
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–14
- 7Hoerner scored on error, Morel safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Senzel.6–14
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–14
- 7Tauchman scored on error, Hoerner safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Senzel, Hoerner safe at second on error.6–13
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–13
- 7Tauchman doubled to right, Candelario scored.6–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–11
- 7Happ homered to center (429 feet).6–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–10
- 7Friedl homered to right center (398 feet).6–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–10
- 6Candelario scored on error and Tauchman scored on error, Bellinger safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Senzel.5–10
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–10
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 35–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–8
- 6Tauchman doubled to center, Suzuki scored, Candelario to third.5–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 6Suzuki singled to center, Gomes scored.5–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–7
- 6Gomes doubled to left, Happ scored.5–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Fair odds
- CHC -108
- CIN +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.2 – 5.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −8 | CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +19 Elo | CHC 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 3031–24 | Road vs home | 28–2721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 5–2 CHC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.