Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching4.0 IP, 13 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Encarnacion-Strand singled to left, McLain scored and Steer scored, Newman to second.9–20
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–20
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–20
- 9Steer doubled to left, Senzel scored, McLain to third.7–20
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–20
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–20
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–20
- 9McLain singled to center, De La Cruz scored, Senzel to second.6–20
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–20
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–20
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–20
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–20
- 8Amaya homered to left center (371 feet), Barnhart scored and Hoerner scored.5–20
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–20
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–20
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 35–20
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–20
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–20
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–20
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–17
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–17
- 8Tauchman hit sacrifice fly to center, Morel scored.5–17
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–17
- 7Wisdom homered to center (427 feet), Happ scored.5–16
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–16
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–16
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–16
- 7Hoerner homered to left center (386 feet).5–14
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–14
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–13
- 6Stephenson homered to left (394 feet), Newman scored.5–13
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–13
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–13
- 5McLain doubled to center, Senzel scored.3–13
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–13
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–13
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–13
- 4Madrigal doubled to left, Candelario scored.2–13
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–13
- 4Swanson homered to center (398 feet), Bellinger scored.2–12
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Fair odds
- CHC -107
- CIN +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.7 – 4.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +8 | CIN: Ben Lively: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +21 Elo | CHC 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 3031–23 | Road vs home | 27–2721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 5–1 CHC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.