Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-3
- Kyle HendricksPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Riley homered to center (430 feet).8–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 27–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 18–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 4Acuña Jr. tripled to right, Harris II scored.7–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 4Harris II singled to left, Arcia scored.6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 4Ozuna homered to left center (437 feet).5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Murphy homered to left (374 feet), Olson scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Olson doubled to left, Albies scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Riley grounded out to second, Acuña Jr. scored, Albies to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Fair odds
- ATL -103
- CHC +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.5 – 5.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +3 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +27 Elo | ATL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 1st of 3032–17 | Road vs home | 30–2719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.