Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gomes hit sacrifice fly to right, Swanson scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 8Steer homered to center (412 feet).3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Maile grounded into double play, second to first, Encarnacion-Strand scored, Benson out at second.2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 3Candelario walked, Bellinger scored, Morel to second, Swanson to third.1–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 41–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Morel walked, Happ scored, Swanson to second, Bellinger to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 41–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Bellinger singled to right, Hoerner scored, Happ to third.1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Happ doubled to right, Hoerner scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1De La Cruz homered to center (424 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Fair odds
- CHC -110
- CIN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.4 – 5.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +3 | CIN: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +39 Elo | CHC 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 3031–25 | Road vs home | 29–2721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 5–3 CHC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.