New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rutschman doubled to center, Cowser scored.3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 6McKenna doubled to left, Cowser scored.3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6McNeil singled to right, Lindor scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Santander homered to right (406 feet).2–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 32–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Urías doubled to right, Westburg scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4McNeil homered to right (348 feet), Nimmo scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3O'Hearn singled to left, Santander scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Henderson homered to center (422 feet), Rutschman scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 62%
- Fair odds
- BAL -132
- NYM +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 5.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −2 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +82 Elo | BAL 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 26th of 3024–36 | Road vs home | 33–215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 0–1 BAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.