New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-3
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting0-3, 1 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7O'Hearn grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, McCann scored, McKenna out at second.0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Rutschman grounded out to third, Mateo scored.0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 63%
- Fair odds
- BAL -134
- NYM +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 5.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +13 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +94 Elo | BAL 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 26th of 3024–37 | Road vs home | 34–215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 0–2 BAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.