Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Riley hit sacrifice fly to second, Harris II scored, Albies to second.6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Hayes homered to center (405 feet).5–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 35–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Albies singled to center, Harris II scored, Acuña Jr. to second.5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 4Hayes singled to center, Suwinski scored and Triolo scored.4–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Williams grounded out to shortstop, Rodríguez scored, Triolo to second, Suwinski to third.4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Triolo reached on infield single to shortstop, Davis scored, Suwinski to second, Rodríguez to third.4–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Albies singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Acuña Jr. doubled to left, Rosario scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Murphy singled to center, Riley scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 62%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- PIT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.2 – 4.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −4 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +89 Elo | ATL 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 1st of 3034–20 | Road vs home | 27–2923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.