Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jason DelayBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Blake PerkinsBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Perkins singled to right, Caratini scored, Contreras to second, Canha to third.2–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 9Frelick singled to center, Perkins scored.2–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Yelich grounded out to second, Caratini scored, Turang to third.2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Delay doubled to left, Williams scored and Peguero scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Fair odds
- MIL -120
- PIT +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.1 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | 0 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +36 Elo | MIL 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3023–32 | Road vs home | 30–2514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 2–6 MIL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.