Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Tyrone TaylorBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Wade MileyPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Jake AluBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Call grounded into fielder's choice to third, Dickerson and Vargas scored on throwing error by third baseman Monasterio, Ruiz to second.2–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 6Yelich doubled to left, Turang scored, Wiemer to third.2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Alu singled to center, Call scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Taylor homered to left center (396 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Fair odds
- MIL -102
- WSH +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −1 | MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +31 Elo | MIL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 10th of 3029–26 | Road vs home | 21–3428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.