Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Call grounded out to shortstop, Dickerson scored.6–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 16–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 7Contreras doubled to left, Turang scored.6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 4Wiemer singled to right, Monasterio scored and Turang scored.5–3
- 4Pitch 10 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 9 : Ball 33–3
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 4Turang singled to center, Adames scored and Canha scored, Monasterio to third.3–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 2Abrams singled to right, Alu scored and Dickerson scored, Abrams thrown out at second, Call to third.1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Alu singled to center, Smith scored, Dickerson to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Monasterio singled to left, Adames scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 52%
- Fair odds
- WSH -102
- MIL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +18 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +12 Elo | WSH 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 10th of 3028–26 | Road vs home | 21–3328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 0–1 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.