Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Joey WiemerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Meneses singled to center, Call scored and Thomas scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Thomas singled to left, Dickerson scored, Call to second.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Wiemer homered to center (409 feet).3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Monasterio singled to right, Frelick scored, Adames to second.2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Thomas singled to left, Abrams scored, Thomas safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Monasterio.1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Contreras doubled to right, Yelich scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Meneses homered to left (372 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 52%
- Fair odds
- MIL -101
- WSH +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +1 | MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +14 Elo | MIL 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 8th of 3028–25 | Road vs home | 20–3328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.