Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Alfonso Rivas IIIBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Carlos SantanaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Canha singled to left, Adames scored, Canha to second, Frelick to second, Frelick safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Palacios.8–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking8–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 6Reynolds homered to right (388 feet).8–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 6Palacios homered to right (386 feet).7–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 16–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 5Santana homered to right center (392 feet).6–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 2Davis homered to left center (380 feet), Reynolds scored.6–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 2Reynolds doubled to right, Capra scored.4–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 1Frelick hit sacrifice fly to left, Contreras scored.3–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 1Santana singled to center, Yelich scored on error, Santana safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Suwinski, Contreras safe at third on error.3–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Rivas homered to left center (403 feet), Suwinski scored and Davis scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 33–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −4 | PIT: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +62 Elo | MIL 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 3022–32 | Road vs home | 30–2410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–6 MIL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.