Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-3
- Mitch KellerPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting2-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Contreras doubled to right, Perkins scored and Wiemer scored.1–14
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–14
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–12
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–12
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–12
- 7Yelich reached on infield single to first, Monasterio scored, Wiemer to second.1–12
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–12
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–11
- 6Frelick homered to right (355 feet), Contreras scored and Santana scored.1–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 5Turang homered to right (414 feet), Frelick scored and Canha scored.1–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–8
- 2Contreras grounded into double play, third to second to first, Wiemer scored, Yelich out at second.1–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 31–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 2Yelich singled to left, Turang scored, Wiemer to third.1–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 2Wiemer doubled to right, Monasterio scored, Turang to third.1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Frelick doubled to left, Adames scored and Contreras scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Suwinski grounded out to shortstop, Rivas scored, McCutchen to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Fair odds
- MIL -121
- PIT +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.7 – 4.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +1 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +44 Elo | MIL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 25th of 3022–31 | Road vs home | 29–2415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–5 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.