Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching2.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Albies grounded out to first, Harris II scored.6–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 5Olson singled to right, Albies scored, Riley to third.5–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 34–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 4Joe homered to left (406 feet).4–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 4Ozuna singled to right, Olson scored and Murphy scored on fielding error by right fielder Davis, Ozuna to third.4–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 4Olson singled to right, Riley scored.2–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 4Albies homered to right (358 feet).1–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 3Peguero singled to center, Rodríguez scored, Triolo to second.0–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 3Triolo singled to center, Davis scored and Suwinski scored, Rodríguez to third.0–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Davis singled to center, McCutchen scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3McCutchen doubled to center, Reynolds scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 63%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- PIT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.1 – 4.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −17 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +89 Elo | ATL 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 1st of 3033–19 | Road vs home | 26–2823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.