Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Endy RodriguezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-3
- Brandon WoodruffPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras scored on error, Canha safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Hayes, Adames safe at third on error.4–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 8Reynolds homered to right center (428 feet), Rodríguez scored.4–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Joe homered to left (358 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Rodríguez homered to right (367 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 60%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +22 | PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 1.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +68 Elo | MIL 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 25th of 3023–33 | Road vs home | 31–2512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 2–7 MIL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.