Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Orlando ArciaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yonny ChirinosPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arcia doubled to left, Pillar scored and Ozuna scored.8–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–6
- 9Pillar singled to left, Lopez scored, Ozuna to second.6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 6Olson walked, Harris II scored, Riley to second, Wall to third.5–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 45–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 34–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 6Arcia homered to left center (426 feet).4–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 5Reynolds homered to center (426 feet).3–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Palacios homered to right center (388 feet).3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 4Rivas homered to center (419 feet).3–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 33–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3d'Arnaud doubled to left, Albies scored and Olson scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 1Hayes homered to left center (413 feet), Reynolds scored and McCutchen scored.1–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Acuña Jr. homered to center (448 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Fair odds
- ATL -110
- PIT +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.1 – 4.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −5 | ATL: Yonny Chirinos: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +56 Elo | ATL 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3033–20 | Road vs home | 27–2823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.