Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Acuña Jr. singled to center, Harris II scored.5–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 7Peguero singled to center, Hayes scored, Davis to second.4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Hayes tripled to right, Reynolds scored.4–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 34–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 6Delay grounded out to third, Suwinski scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 6Peguero singled to center, Davis scored, Suwinski to third.4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 3Rivas hit sacrifice fly to left, Reynolds scored, Hayes to second.4–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 34–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Hayes singled to left, Delay scored and Palacios scored, Reynolds to third.4–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Ozuna doubled to center, d'Arnaud scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Fair odds
- ATL -110
- PIT +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.1 – 4.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +18 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +40 Elo | ATL 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 1st of 3035–20 | Road vs home | 27–3023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 2–1 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.