Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-4
- Tylor MegillPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Riley homered to left center (377 feet).7–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 6Rosario doubled to center, d'Arnaud scored.6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 5Riley hit sacrifice fly to center, Acuña Jr. scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Albies singled to right, Harris II scored, Albies out stretching at second, Acuña Jr. to third.4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Rosario singled to center, Olson scored, Riley scored and Ozuna scored on fielding error by center fielder Nimmo, Rosario to second.3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Fair odds
- ATL -111
- NYM +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.5 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −11 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +66 Elo | ATL 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.222nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 1st of 3035–21 | Road vs home | 28–2416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 5–1 NYM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.