Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Allan WinansPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Mets- Daniel VogelbachBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Denyi ReyesPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lopez homered to right (401 feet), Murphy scored and Wall scored.21–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play21–3
- 9Murphy singled to right, Olson scored.18–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play18–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul18–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul18–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul18–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging18–3
- 9Riley homered to right center (382 feet), Albies scored.17–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play17–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 117–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul17–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul17–3
- 9Albies singled to left, Lopez scored and Pillar scored.15–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play15–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 115–3
- 8Vogelbach homered to right center (396 feet), McNeil scored and Alonso scored.13–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play13–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 113–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul13–0
- 8Murphy homered to center (436 feet).13–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 112–0
- 8Olson homered to left (357 feet).12–0
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play12–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul11–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul11–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking11–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking11–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 211–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–0
- 7Albies homered to right center (390 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.11–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–0
- 7Acuña Jr. singled to right, Harris II scored.9–0
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play9–0
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 38–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 28–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 18–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Fair odds
- ATL -111
- NYM +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −10 | ATL: Allan Winans: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYM: Denyi Reyes: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +63 Elo | ATL 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 1st of 3036–21 | Road vs home | 28–2517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 6–1 NYM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.