New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Kyle HigashiokaBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Touki ToussaintPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Judge homered to left center (410 feet).7–1
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 36–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 8Higashioka homered to left center (415 feet), Bader scored.6–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Robert Jr. homered to left (346 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Bauers hit sacrifice fly to center, Bader scored, Volpe to third.4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Bader singled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored, Bader to second.3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Kiner-Falefa doubled to center, McKinney scored and Stanton scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 48%
- Fair odds
- CHW -100
- NYY +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +4 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Touki Toussaint: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +15 Elo | NYY 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 20th of 3023–27 | Road vs home | 24–2925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–3 CHW in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.