New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4
- Gerrit ColePitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Robert Jr. doubled to right, Remillard scored and Andrus scored.1–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 8Benintendi hit sacrifice fly to center, Thompson scored.1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7McKinney hit sacrifice fly to center, Judge scored, Torres to third.1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Vaughn homered to center (413 feet), Moncada scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Fair odds
- NYY -103
- CHW +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −6 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +38 Elo | NYY 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 19th of 3023–26 | Road vs home | 23–2925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–2 CHW in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.