Houston Astros at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Volpe singled to right, Bader scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6Tucker homered to right (375 feet).3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 2Maldonado singled to left, J. Abreu scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 2Meyers grounded out to third, Alvarez scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1McKinney homered to right (401 feet).0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Stanton homered to left center (430 feet), Judge scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Fair odds
- NYY -107
- HOU +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 4.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +6 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +19 Elo | NYY 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3031–22 | Road vs home | 33–2610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.