Houston Astros at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Jake BauersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stanton homered to left (435 feet).7–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 17–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 6Tucker doubled to right, Meyers scored and Bregman scored, Alvarez to third.7–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 5Kiner-Falefa homered to right center (373 feet).5–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Alvarez homered to center (428 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Bauers homered to left (323 feet).4–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 34–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Bregman hit by pitch, McCormick scored, Altuve to second, Peña to third.4–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Diaz homered to right center (377 feet), Altuve scored and Tucker scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 47%
- Fair odds
- NYY -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 4.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −24 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Severino: team allows 1.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +23 Elo | HOU 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3031–23 | Road vs home | 34–269th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–1 NYY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.